Forecasting Tomato Price and Arrival Patterns in Krishi Upaj Mandis, Rajnandgaon, Chhattisgarh using ARIMA Models

Seasonal indices are a statistical method using for explore of seasonal pattern of time series data. Twelve months ratio to moving average method is good for know about pattern of arrival and price around the year. The study was revealed that the peak arrivals season of tomato was found in month August (3084) to October (1767) and Peak price of tomato observed in the month Jun to August months of the year. In this study, for the use of farmers, traders and policy makers, we have made forecasts by most ARIMA Model (Box-Jenkins method) with the help of statistical package R (v 4.1) for a few years in which it was found that the highest arrivals and price in July-August months of the year. It is noticed that the positively relationship between price and arrivals of tomato in Krishi Upaj Mandi, Rajnandgaon, Chhattisgarh. Price of tomato was ranging from the minimum Rs.225/ qtl. to Rs. 9000/qtl. during the last eight years [year 2016-17 to Oct. 2023 (session 2023-24)]. The findings suggest that financial support for off-season protected cultivation and strategic planning in annual budgets can help mitigate price fluctuations.